Statnett sees data centres driving Norway's power demand as it cuts its growth outlook

Statnett has cut its outlook for Norwegian electricity demand, but now expects data centres to account for a larger share of the growth that remains. In its long term market analysis for 2026 to 2060, published on 19 October, the transmission system operator puts consumption growth over the period at 20 to 80 TWh, against 50 to 120 TWh in the previous edition covering 2024 to 2050, Statnett said.

Statnett now sees a greater chance of high data centre growth, while planned growth in industry, petroleum and hydrogen has been revised down, E24 reported. Electrification of transport and new data centres are named as the main drivers. In one of four main scenarios, consumption rises to 220 TWh by 2060, with the largest growth in data centres and industry, and Norway runs an average annual deficit of nearly 20 TWh from 2035, according to Bergens Tidende / NTB.

New generation is the limiting factor. "Access to new power production will determine how large consumption growth can be," said Gunnar Løvås, Statnett's executive vice president for power system and customers (translated from Norwegian). Norway has an annual surplus of about 15 TWh today, and Statnett sees realistic production growth of 10 to 30 TWh up to 2040, with few plans for new production in place, E24 reported. "A lasting deficit larger than 20 to 30 TWh will cause major challenges in dry years," Løvås said.

Statnett has reserved grid capacity for about 50 TWh of new consumption and expects much of it to materialise over time. "Our grid development plans must be prepared for several development paths," Løvås said. According to E24, the analysis concludes that a lasting surplus would likely require greater acceptance of onshore wind, state support for offshore wind or nuclear power, or stronger management of consumption growth.

On prices, the base scenario has average prices in southern and central Norway falling to about EUR 40 to 50 per MWh in the coming years, mainly because of lower prices in neighbouring countries, while prices in northern Norway rise as consumption there grows. From 2030, Statnett expects average Norwegian prices of EUR 30 to 70 per MWh across its scenarios.

The analysis lands as data centres press on the grid queue. Data centre projects needing about 9,000 MW were in Statnett's capacity queue in October, nearly 58 per cent of the queue for new consumption, E24 reported on 18 October.

Source: Statnett, Statnett: full report (PDF), E24, Bergens Tidende / NTB, E24 on the capacity queue

This article was written with AI assistance and reviewed by the SDC-Platform editorial team before publication.